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Market Outlook
 

World LNG Market Outlook
The LNG market is growing rapidly to support increasing global demand for natural gas as a cleaner source of energy.  By 2015, it is projected that LNG will contribute 12% towards meeting global gas demand compared to 8% in 2007. 


Figure 1 – Actual and Projected Global Gas Consumption and LNG Share of Global Gas

Although the growth dynamics vary on a regional basis, demand for LNG is projected to double to 350 million tons per year (MTPA) in 2015 from 170 MTPA in 2007.  LNG growth in the Pacific Basin is driven by the rapid demand growth in India and China outpacing the development of domestic supplies.  In Europe, although overall demand for natural gas is projected to grow at a moderate pace, stagnating domestic production and overall pipeline imports, and supply diversification concerns are expected to drive LNG’s increasing share of European supplies.  In North America, LNG is expected to be required to address the imbalance created by increased natural gas demand from power generation and the overall moderate decline in domestic supplies.

LNG Prospects for the United States
In response to growing demand for LNG, over 95 MTPA – 12 billion cubic feet per day (BCFD) – of new LNG production capacity is currently under construction in the Middle East, North Africa, West Africa, Russia, Southeast Asia and South America.  This new wave of liquefaction capacity is expected to start producing LNG starting in mid-2009 through 2013.  The implication for the US market in the near term – late 2009 through 2012 – is that LNG will be pushed to the US, regardless of demand, because of the inability of the European and Asian markets to absorb all of this incremental capacity.  Because of its market size and liquidity, and extensive natural gas storage infrastructure, the US is the de facto swing market for the global LNG industry and the only dependable destination for LNG when other markets cannot absorb LNG. 

Torp
Figure 2 – Projected LNG Demand by Market vs. LNG Production

Over the longer-term, a growing projected imbalance between demand for natural gas and the combination of declining domestic production and imports from Canada is expected to cause a demand pull for LNG in the US.  Canada’s pipeline exports to the US are projected to decline because of increasing domestic demand and declining production in Western Canada.  In the US, although unconventional reserves from shale gas have increased significantly over the past several years, production increases from these reserves are not expected to fully offset declining conventional gas production and increasing gas demand for power generation. As a result of these dynamics, US demand for LNG in 2015 is projected to be up to 12 BCFD. 

The Bienville Project in the US Gulf Coast
The location of the Bienville Offshore LNG terminal on the US Gulf Coast offers some significant benefits for LNG suppliers aiming to access the US market in both the near and longer term:

  • The gas market in the Gulf Coast is large, in excess of 7 BCFD, and liquid;
  • Long haul pipeline infrastructure is already in place in the region to provide access to the mid-west, northeast, southeast and Florida markets;
  • Extensive underground storage infrastructure is already in place to store natural gas, as needed, to manage demand and price volatility;
  • Local and State officials and governments are relatively supportive of major energy infrastructure developments in their communities.
 
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